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National Projections of Younger Patient Demand for Primary and Revision Joint Replacement


February 25, 2009

Dr. Steven Kurtz, Corporate Vice President presented the results of a new study at the 2009 Annual Meeting of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS), that found that the number of patients requiring hip or knee replacement surgery is likely to soon outpace the number of surgeons who can perform the procedure.  The study was performed by members of Exponent's Biomechanics, Data & Risk Analysis and Epidemiology Practices.


Adult Reconstruction Hip 2: Revision Total Hip Arthroplasty:
National Projections of Younger Patient Demand for Primary and Revision Joint Replacement

The purpose of this study was to develop nationwide projections for primary and revision TJR for the young patient population in the U.S. We tested the hypothesis that patients younger than 65 years old will represent the majority of the anticipated demand for primary and revision TJR between 2010 and 2030.
The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) was used to identify primary and revision arthroplasty performed between 1993 and 2006. National projections were calculated by summing the projections for each subgroup, for which both the population and the prevalence of surgery were statistically modeled to vary over time using Poisson regression.
Substantial increases in the demand for primary hip as well as primary and revision knee replacement surgery among patients < 65 years old were predicted over time by our modeling. The demand for primary Total Hip Arthroplasty (THA) and Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) among patients < 65 years old was projected to exceed 50% of arthroplasty recipients by 2011 and 2016, respectively. By 2030, the demand for TJA by patients <65 years old is projected to be 52% of primary THAs and 55-62% of primary or revision TKAs. The future demand was projected to grow the fastest for the 45-54 year age category for primary TKA, which was anticipated to grow from 59,077 in 2006 to 994,104 (17 times) by 2030.
This study provides quantification of the young patient demand for primary and revision total joint replacement in the United States through 2030. The current findings are expected to have implications in the private coverage and reimbursement of TJR procedures in the future.

For more information on the presentation, click here