The potential adverse health effects of air pollution, particularly among susceptible sub-populations, continue to be of concern, not only in rapidly expanding cities in developing countries where levels of air pollution have increased significantly, but also in North American and Western European cities where levels have been decreasing. Based largely on studies conducted at the Harvard School of Public Health, the
New York Times reported in 1993 that particulate matter (PM) in the ambient air was responsible for premature mortality in the United States. Since that time hundreds of research papers investigating the association between PM and various health end points have appeared in the literature, and it has become abundantly clear that the relationship between air pollution and health is a complex one. These studies, some conducted by Exponent scientists, show that the interpretation of epidemiological studies of air pollution is difficult because of myriad methodological problems.
One of the major difficulties of air pollution epidemiology is that the health risks, if any, of current ambient levels of air pollution are extremely small when compared to the traditional risk factors, such as cigarette smoking. As a consequence, it is difficult to distinguish the signal, i.e. the effects of air pollution, from the noise of natural fluctuations in health events, such as hospital admissions and deaths attributable to other, non-pollution-related factors, such as weather. Sophisticated statistical approaches, including Bayesian methods, have been devised to tease out the signal from the noise.
Exponent scientists have had considerable experience in the analyses and evaluation of epidemiological and toxicological data on the impact of components of air pollution on human health. Exponent expertise includes analyses of time-series, cohort (semi-ecologic) and panel studies of air pollution and health. Exponent scientists have been involved in reviews of various EPA criteria documents and staff papers. Exponent scientists, supported both by trade groups and the EPA, have also published research on air pollution and health in various peer-reviewed journals.
Selected Publications Reiss R, Anderson EL, Cross CE, Hidy G, Hoel D, McClellan R, Moolgavkar S. Evidence of health impacts of sulfate and nitrate containing particles in ambient air.
Inhal Toxicol 2007; 19:419-449.
Moolgavkar SH. Pollution analysis flawed by statistical model. Correspondence.
Nature 2007; 445:21.
Moolgavkar SH. A review and critique of the EPA’s rationale for a fine particle standard.
Regulat Toxicol Pharmacol 2005; 42:123–144.
Moolgavkar SH. Air pollution and daily mortality in two U.S. counties: season-specific analyses and exposure-response relationships.
Inhal Toxicol 2003; 15:877-907.
Dewanji A, Moolgavkar SH. Choice of stratification in Poisson process analysis of recurrent event data with environmental covariates.
Statist Med 2002; 21:3383–3393.
Dewanji A, Moolgavkar SH. A Poisson process approach for recurrent event data with environmental covariates.
Environmetrics 2000; 11:665–673.
Moolgavkar SH, Luebeck EG, Anderson EL. Estimation of unit risk for coke oven emissions.
Risk Anal 1998; 18:813–825.
Moolgavkar SH, Luebeck EG, Anderson, EL. Air pollution and hospital admissions for respiratory causes in Minneapolis-St. Paul and Birmingham.
Epidemiology 1997; 8(4):364-370.